Water resource vulnerability assessment methods and applications
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Abstract:
Evaluating the vulnerability of water resources is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and effectively managing water security risks. The Sixth Assessment Report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations in 2023 underscored that human-induced global warming is intensifying, leading to a greater occurrence of extreme droughts and floods. This phenomenon is contributing to heightened uncertainty and risks related to water supply and management. Yuxi City, located in central Yunnan, is a typical region subject to seasonal water shortages, with uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. The conflict between the water supply and demand is further aggravated under the influence of the monsoon season. Assessing regional water resource vulnerability and uncovering the extent and spatial characteristics of the impacts of climate change and human activities on the water resource system can provide reliable guides for government water resource management, facilitating the sustainable development of water resources. Existing water resource vulnerability assessments primarily focused on specific regions, lacking generalizability and scalability across different spatial scales. To deal with these issues, the paper expanded the concept and connotation of water resource vulnerability. It addressed the deficiencies present in the spatial differentiation capability of current evaluation methods and the inability to adapt to varying spatial scales. A spatially independent evaluation index system was developed based on sensitivity pressure, water resource endowment status, and adaptive response. Eleven indicators were selected and employed, along with the combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and entropy weighting method to determine the weights of these indicators. By leveraging grid-based methodology and GIS spatial computing capabilities, these factors were integrated into a unified spatial framework. A grid-based vulnerability assessment of water resources was achieved through linear weighting of each grid cell, and the results were classified into five categories: non-vulnerable, weakly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, highly vulnerable, and extremely vulnerable. This approach enhanced the spatial differentiation capability of the vulnerability assessment and provided a new perspective for regional water resource vulnerability assessment. It also offered decision-making support for the rational allocation of water resources in water diversion projects and the planning and management of water resources in receiving areas. The proposed method was applied to the Yuxi water-receiving area of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project, leading to the following conclusions: (1) Spatially, significant differences in vulnerability intensity existed among regions, with the western region showing higher vulnerability than the eastern region, forming a distribution pattern that gradually decreased from Xingyun Lake toward the east; (2) Temporally, the intensity of water resource vulnerability exhibited marked seasonal variation, with higher vulnerability during the winter and spring seasons compared to the summer and autumn seasons. Vulnerability peaked in February and was lowest in August. Precipitation and vegetation cover, which are strongly influenced by climate, had significant seasonal variability, with respective weight values of 0.105 9 and 0.064 6, making notable contributions to the seasonal characteristics of the vulnerability results; (3) The Xingyun Lake basin and its surrounding areas showed significantly higher water resource vulnerability than other regions, fluctuating between high and extreme vulnerability throughout the year. The three indicators - water resource utilization rate, per capita water consumption, and hydraulic engineering density - contributed substantially to the vulnerability assessment results. In summary, a multitude of factors influenced the water resource vulnerability, and future measures should aim to reduce human interference and lower the risk of water resource vulnerability in the region. Under the dual pressures of global climate change and socio-economic development, the resilience of the water resource system to environmental changes remained weak, and water resource vulnerability in this context continued to face significant challenges.
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