Spatial optimisation of water resources carrying capacity based on regulation of external water transfers
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Abstract:
The shortage of water resources is an important constraint on regional development. The Yellow River basin belongs to the resource water shortage area. To solve the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources in the water shortage cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and its economic and social development mismatch, a number of cross-basin water transfer project constructions have been proposed in China. Water resources regulation brings certain changes and challenges to the water resources management and allocation work of the recipient cities. In this context, it is important to achieve spatial balance and efficient use of water resources in the receiving zones. Liaocheng was chosen as the study area to quantitatively study the spatial equilibrium regulation of water resources carrying capacity by external water transfer from receiving cities. Firstly, the regulatory role of external water on the receiving area was fully considered. External water was introduced into the water resources sub-system as a single indicator to construct a regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system consisting of four sub-systems: water resources, economy, society, and ecology. The comprehensive weighting method was used to determine the weights of the indicators, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the status quo evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Liaocheng City from 2016 to 2022. Then, the barrier degree model was used to analyze the reasons for the formation of spatial differences in the water resources carrying capacity of Liaocheng City. The optimization strategy for the spatial balance of water resources in the districts and counties of Liaocheng City, which prioritized water conservation and efficiently utilized the external water and reclaimed water, was proposed in response to the results of the analysis of the influential factors. Finally, through the prediction of future water demand and available water supply, the supply and demand of water resources in Liaocheng City in 2035 under different water supply frequencies and the level of carrying capacity were evaluated. The results of the study showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Liaocheng City showed a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west. The spatial differences always existed and had an increasing trend. The difference between the ratings of the best and worst evaluated areas rose from 0.177 in 2016 to 0.323 in 2022. The water resources sub-systems were considered to be the main cause of these spatial differences. In addition, a number of factors in the other sub-systems were also important in influencing spatial balance. These factors included GDP per capita in the economic sub-system, urbanization rate in the social sub-system, ecosystem water use rate, and groundwater extraction coefficient in the ecological sub-system. Under the spatial regulation of water conservation control and external water transfer, the future water resources carrying capacity of all districts and counties increased to different degrees. The optimization effect was more obvious in districts and counties with lagging carrying capacity, with an average optimization rate of 25 percent in the year of levelling off, and an average optimization rate of 11 percent in districts with higher original assessment values. The spatial difference in the value of the carrying capacity was reduced from 0.314 to 0.151, and the spatial equilibrium effect of the water resources carrying capacity was remarkable. This paper combined the study of water resources carrying capacity and spatial equilibrium, evaluated the level of water resources carrying capacity of different incoming water frequencies under the balanced regulation of supply and demand, and demonstrated the optimization effect of spatial equilibrium of water resources based on the regulation of external water transfer. The results of the study can provide a reference basis for water resources management and control in similar cities with multiple water sources in the Yellow River basin.
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