Assessing winter temperature grade in typical areas along the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project using standardized temperature index
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Abstract:
A large north-south area with self-flowing water transportation was spanned by the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project. During the winter water transportation process, the water temperature is affected by weather, which can lead to ice conditions in the Hebei section of the channel. Therefore, scientific and quantitative evaluation of winter temperature in the areas along the Project is an important basis for analyzing the occurrence and evolution of ice conditions in the main canal.In this study, Handan, Zhengding, and Zhuozhou were used as representative regions, and the fitting of statistical frequency distribution and theoretical probability distribution was analyzed using daily winter temperature data from 1979 to 2021. Additionally, a new quantitative evaluation model for winter temperature was proposed based on the standardized temperature index method.The results showed that: (1) The standardized temperature index method's evaluation of cold and warm conditions in winter was generally consistent with the national standard method. However, fewer years for delineating strong cold winters and warm winters in each representative area was evaluated by the standardized temperature index method compared to the national standard method. (2) The temperature values corresponding to cold and warm level thresholds, calculated based on January temperature in each representative area, were significantly lower than those calculated based on the entire three months of winter. The temperature value decreased as the representative area moves farther north. (3) According to the evaluation of standardized temperature index method, the probabilities of strong cold winter occurrence in Handan, Zhengding, and Zhuozhou were 7.14%, 9.52%, and 4.76%, respectively. The probabilities of weak cold winter and above occurrence are 38.09%, 40.48%, and 38.09%, respectively. The probabilities of normal winter were 21.43%, 28.57% and 21.43%, the probabilities of weak warm winter and above occurrence were 40.48%, 30.95% and 40.48, respectively, and the probabilities of strong warm winter were 4.76%, 7.14% and 2.38%, respectively.Compared to the national standard method based on the normal distribution, the characterization of skewed probability distribution of temperature series was considered through these results, making it more scientifically sound in distinguishing relative temperature conditions and more valuable for promotion and application.
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