Long-term service risk assessment of pumping station system in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach)
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Abstract:
The Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project is a significant strategic water resources allocation and comprehensive utilization project across river basins and regions. In this project, the pumping station system is characterized by its large scale, complex structure, and wide range of water supply areas. During the long-term service duration, the system faces various uncertainties and risks. When the fault occurs, the normal operation of the system will be affected, which may cause abnormal water supply, and even lead to a series of ecological and social problems, or even casualties. Therefore, the long-term service risk assessment of the cross-basin long-distance water diversion engineering’s pumping station system is crucial to adequately estimate various risks and understand the overall risk level, which is essential for the development of scientific and rational risk management measures.Aiming at the long-term service risk assessment of the pumping station system of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach), the fault tree analysis method is employed to identify the major long-term service risk sources and corresponding relationships that may impede the normal pumping function, considering the insufficient water lifting efficiency and safety threat to engineering. Based on the categorized long-term service risk factors, considering operational conditions, equipment quality, technological status, and engineering safety, a multidimensional approach is adopted, in which the analytic hierarchy process and expert consultation methods are utilized to determine the evaluation indicators, indicator weights, and risk rating criteria for the long-term service risks of the pumping station system. This establishes an assessment method for the long-term service risks of the pumping station system of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach).Based on the collected measurements consisting of engineering characteristics and design flood control parameters of the pumping station system in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach), the developed long-term service risk assessment method is applied to evaluate the long-term service risk of the Yuanqiao pump station, Zhaolou pump station, Shiliang pump station, Houchenlou pressurized pump station and Qiliqiao pressurized pump station. The results indicate that the long-term service risk rates of the pumping stations are all greater than 1 less than or equal to 2. Among them, Houchenlou pressurized pumping station and Qiliqiao pressurized pumping station (Shangqiu unit) have slightly lower risk levels (around 1.33) due to a slightly higher proportion of backup units (around 33%). The risk rates of the other pumping stations are higher, ranging from 1.50 to 1.70. Overall, the risk levels remain relatively low.However, it is worth noting that risk is the result of the combined effect of risk rates and failure consequences. Pumping stations with larger design discharge are bound to have more severe consequences in the event of failure compared to smaller ones. In the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach), the upstream pumping stations have significantly larger design scales than the downstream pumping stations. This characteristic increases the safety risks of the pumping station system. Furthermore, except for the Shangqiu unit and Xiayi unit at Qiliqiao pressurized pumping station, which are in parallel, all other pumping stations in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach) are in series. Considering that the risk events at each pumping station are independent and once the upstream pump station fails, the downstream series-connected pumping stations will be unable to operate normally, while the parallel-connected pumping stations will remain unaffected. Taking this into account, the risk rate is revised. The results reveal that, except for Yuanqiao pumping station and Zhaolou pumping station, which are located upstream and are less affected, the risk levels of all the other pumping stations increase to a range greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3. Therefore, the spatial difference and structural relationship of the pump station design scale will significantly increase the service risk of the pumping station system, which should be paid more attention in the subsequent risk control and operation management.
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