Drought and flood trends in Xiong′an New Area

Trends of drought and flood are very important for the planning and construction of Xiong′an New Area.In this paper,550 years of historical drought and flood grade data from 1469 to 2018 in Xiong′an New Area were constructed.The data series of drought and flood grade with frequency of drought prone and flood prone years in every 10 years were our research object,which were abbreviated as drought prone and flood prone sequences in our study.The turning points of the sequences were identified by Lee Heghinian method,ordered clustering and moving test.The trends of the sequences were identified with linear trend regression test and Spearman rank method.The sequences were predicted with a R/S analysis method.The results showed that there was a turning point in 1579-1588 for the flood prone sequence.The subsequence showed an insignificant upward trend before this turning point,and a significant upward trend after it.There was a turning point in 1919 to 1928 for the drought prone sequence.The subsequence showed an insignificant downward trend before this turning point,and an insignificant upward trend after it.At the significant level of 0.05,Hurst index forecasting showed that the flood prone sequence would show a trend varying from significantly decreasing to insignificantly increasing in the future,while the drought prone sequence would show a trend varying from insignificantly increasing to significantly decreasing.

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