Basin Level Study on Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability of Hydrologic Events Based on Bayes-net Theory
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Abstract:
A Synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk management model of rich-poor runoff and pr-ecipitation in the upper, middle and lower reaches of Dongjiang river basin was developed using a combined approach based on the copula function and Bayes-net works and the interrelation of runoff and precipitation among different three stations were intuitively described. Based on the Copula function, the joint distribution model was established to calculate the risk probability of the diversion adverse situation of Synchronous-asynchronous encounter. On the basis of a posterior knowledge input, the Backward reasoning function of Bayes-net was utilized to conduct simulation calculation of the potential Synchronous-asynchronous encounter states in some certain situations which may happen in the fututr. The result showrf that the change of a node probability value in the system would have a big impact on the others, on the premise that the rainfall shortage situation appeared in the upper and middle reaches, the risk probability of water transfer disadvantages, which increased to more than 55%; At last, the result of the simulating calculation would provide theoretical support to formulate the water transfer scheme in river basin.
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