Correlation between land subsidence and groundwater exploitation and forecast of land subsidence
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Abstract:
The excessive exploitation of groundwater is the main cause of land subsidence in Tianjin. By analyzing the groundwater exploitation and land subsidence data from 1980 to 2013 of the central area of Tianjin, Tanggu, Hangu and Dagang District, the correlation model of the cumulative amount of land subsidence and groundwater exploitation was established. The results showed that the error was small when the model simulated the cumulative amount of land subsidence. On this basis, combined with the actual situation, 3 groundwater extraction plans were designed to forecast the regional land subsidence from 2014 to 2020. The results showed that the scheme 3 was the optimum groundwater exploitation scheme, the reduction ratios of the year settlement and cumulative settlement between scheme 3 and 1 were about 68.29% and 5.47%, and were 65.65% and 4.97 % between scheme 3 and 2. In addition, the rate of land subsidence would significantly reduce when the South to North Water Diversion Project was carried out.
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