Prediction of climate change in Kaidu River basin under multi-ensemble GCMs

A statistical downscaling model that based on the stepwise-cluster analysis(SCADS), was employed to establish a statistical downscaling relationship between the large-scale climate variables from the multi-ensemble GCMs, and the regional climate variables of the Kaidu River basin, as well as to calculate the prediction of climate change in the future. The results indicated that the outputs of SCADS could model the climate variables of Kaidu River basin with a satisfactory. The NSE for all climate variables in the calibration (1961-1990) and validation (1991-1999) periods were larger than 0.55, indicating a good precision of SCADS. Besides, in terms of the prediction of climate change in the future of Kaidu River basin, it was shown an upwards of monthly average temperature, and a larger amount of evaporation, precipitation, sunshine-hour, and relative-humidity in three different periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100).

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