Uncertainty analyses of parameters in TOPMODEL model based on GLUE and Standard Bayesian method
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Abstract:
Quantif ication of uncer tainties in the hy dr olog ical models has at tracted much att ention in t he hydro lo gic r esear ch field in recent y ears. Many methods have been repor ted fo r the uncertainty quantificatio n, of which GLUE and standard Bay esian met ho d ar e the tw o mo st commonly used met ho ds. This paper focuses o n the computational ef ficiencies and differ ences of the two metho ds in the study of T OPMODEL model. The uncer tainties o f mo del parameters and simulatio n wer e evaluat ed using the GLU E and standar d Bay esian method, w hich show ed that( 1) the parameter poster ior distr ibut ions g ener ated by the Bay esian met ho d ar e slig htly less scatter ed than those generated by the GLUE met ho d; and( 2) the confidence inter vals calculated by the Bayesian method and the GLUE metho d ar e ver y similar w hen the threshold v alue( = 0. 8) is g iven in GLUE.
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