为深入探究气象要素与夏玉米产量的关系, 根据逐日气象数据、逐年作物数据, 采用气候倾向率、M2K 突变检验及相关性检验等方法对河北省夏玉米气象产量及相关气象要素变化特征进行分析, 在此基础上探讨两者相关性 及作用程度。结果显示: 河北省平均、最高、最低气温呈显著上升趋势, 日照时数、降水量、相对湿度、风速则呈显著下降趋势; 1960- 2017 年河北省夏玉米气象产量以每 10 年- 568 kg/ hm2 速度显著减少; 气象产量与平均气温、最 高气温、最低气温负相关, 与日照时数、降水量、相对湿度、风速正相关; 降水量、最低气温、风速是影响河北省夏玉米气象产量的关键气象要素, 最高气温和日照时数对夏玉米气象产量影响较小。研究成果可为优化农业资源结构, 促进地区农业可持续发展提供理论支撑。

In order to deeply explore the relationship between meteorological factors and summer maize yield, the annual yield data and related meteor ological factors in Hebei Province were analyzed using different methods such as climate propensity rate, M2K mutation test, and correlation test. Based on this, the relevance and the degree of action of the two are discussed. The results showed that: the av erage, maximum and minimum temperatures in Hebei Province showed a significant upward trend, while the sunshine hours, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed showed a significant downward trend; from 1960 to 2017, the meteorological output of summer corn in Hebei Province was significantly reduced at - 568 kg/ hm2 per 10 a; meteorological output is negatively related to average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and is positively related to sunshine hours, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed; precipitation, minimum temperature and wind speed are the key factors affecting the meteorological output of summer maize in Hebei Province. The research results can provide theoretical support for optimizing the structure of agricultural resources and promoting the sustainable development of regional agriculture.

国家自然科学基金( 51579126; 51779114) ; 辽宁省“百千万人才工程”资助基金; 大连市科技创新基金( 2018J13SN116)