水电工程项目群建设过程中风险管理是一个多方合作联合供应的复杂系统，其中资源冲突是施工企业风险管理过程中最为关键的风险。针对资源冲突风险的复杂性和不确定性，引入集对分析理论，提出基于五元联系数的水电工程项目群资源冲突风险评价及预测模型。根据水电工程项目群资源冲突特征建立资源冲突风险评价体系，通过熵权法估计各评价指标权重，运用五元联系数建立同异反风险评价预测模型进行静态风险评价，用偏联系数动态预测风险发展趋势。以某河流流域干流上游河段的水电站为例，运用模型进行分析。结果表明，该水电站资源冲突风险等级较低，整体上呈现风险逐渐降低的趋势，但其中各子风险呈现波浪式的发展趋势，与实际情况相符，验证了该模型的可行性。

Risk management in construction of hydropower engineering project is a complex system of multiparty cooperation and supply,in which resource conflict is the key jeopardy in the risk management process of construction enterprises.Aiming of the complexity and uncertainty of resource conflict risk of hydropower engineering programs,the set pair analysis theory was introduced,and a model for risk assessment and prediction of hydropower engineering programs resource conflict based on five element connection number was proposed.According to the resource conflict characteristics of hydropower engineering programs,the resource conflict risk evaluation system was established.The entropy weight method was used to estimate the weight of each evaluation index.The static risk evaluation model of identical,different,and counter risk evaluation was established by using five-element connection number,and the development trend of risk was predicted by partial connection number.The hydropower station in the upstream section of the main stream of a river basin is used as an example in the model for analysis purpose.The results show that the resource conflict risk level of the hydropower station is low,and the overall risk is gradually decreasing,but each sub-risk presents a wave like development trend,which is consistent with the actual situation,and verifies the feasibility of the model.

长江科学院开放研究基金(CKWV2016382/KY)；国家自然科学基金(51878385)