水资源安全问题一直是研究热点，基于生产消费状况揭示区域虚拟水流动，对了解水资源利用状况和水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。基于虚拟水视角，以灌溉用水和绿水核算区域农业虚拟水生产，以居民膳食消费核算居民虚拟水消费，以两者的差值核算并分析了京津冀地区在生产消费模式下农业虚拟水流动特征及对区域水资源压力的影响。结果表明：(1)2004－2015年间，河北、天津、北京年均作物生产虚拟水分别为3531亿m3、229亿m3和160亿m3，年均畜牧产品生产虚拟水分别为4453亿m3、476亿m3、367亿m3；河北、天津作物虚拟水呈现下降趋势但变化趋势不明显，北京作物生产虚拟水呈现出持续性的下降趋势；河北、天津畜牧产品虚拟水均呈现出先增加后减少最后趋于缓慢上升态势，北京畜牧产品虚拟水呈现持续下降趋势。（2）2004－2015年河北、天津和北京年均虚拟水消费分别为2437亿m3、616亿m3和983亿m3，虚拟水消费均呈现出上升趋势。（3）河北省为虚拟水输出型，输出量呈明显的下降趋势，北京市和天津市为虚拟水输入型，输入量呈增加趋势。（4）2004－2015年年均水资源压力指数呈现河北>天津>北京，水资源匮乏度呈现为天津>北京>河北，水资源自给率呈现河北>天津>北京，北京和天津对外部虚拟水输入的依赖程度逐渐增加。京津冀水资源面临着严重的短缺问题，水资源超载严重。提高农业用水效率，优化种植结构，引导合理的膳食结构调整，从生产和消费两方面同时入手是解决京津冀水资源问题的关键措施。

The water resources security has always been a research hotspot.It is important to understand the utilization of water resources,as well as the sustainable use of water resources from production to consumption.Based on the perspectives of agriculture virtual water,this paper estimated the regional virtual water production from irrigation water and green water,and resident agriculture virtual water consumption from resident dietary consumption,and explored the flow characteristics of agriculture virtual water and its impacts on regional water resource with the production consumption mode in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.The results showed that:(1)During 2004-2015,the average annual production of virtual water was 35 31 billion m3,229 billion m3,160 billion m3 in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing,respectively,and the annual average production of virtual water for livestock products was 2909 billion m3,240 billion m3,179 billion m3.Hebei and Tianjin's crop virtual water showed a downward trend but the trend was not statistically significant.Beijing's crop production virtual water appeared a downward trend.The virtual water of livestock products in Hebei and Tianjin showed anincreasing trend in the early period,then a decreasing trend,and finally a stable but continuous downward trend in Beijing.(2)During 2004-2015,the average annual virtual water consumption in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing was 3437 billion m3,616 billion m3,and 983 billion m3,respectively.Those virtual water consumption all showed an upward trend.(3)Hebei Province exported virtual water,and its output showed a significant downward trend.Beijing and Tianjin were importers of virtual water,and their importing volumes were increasing.(4)The annual average water stress index presented a Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing pattern,water scarcity index Tianjin>Beijing>Hebei,and water self sufficiency rate Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing from 2004 to 2015.Beijing and Tianjin increasingly depended on external virtual water inputs.Beijing Tianjin Hebei are facing water shortage problems aswater resources were seriously overexploited.Improving agricultural water use efficiency,optimizing planting structure,and guiding rational dietary structures,and taking both production and consumption into account,are key countermeasures to solve the water problems in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.

国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0401402）；国家自然科学基金（51679089；51709107）