以黄台桥水文站为出口断面的小清河流域作为研究区, 根据流域内 5 个雨量站 1977- 2014 年日降水资料, 首 先采用非参数 Mann2Kendall 法对流域内各站多年汛期降水变化进行趋势分析, 并用 Mo rlet 小波分析流域汛期降 水的周期变化; 其次使用 Mann2Kenda ll 检验法并结合滑动 t 检验、有序聚类法及 Yamamoto 法进行突变检验; 最后 使用 Hurst 指数法对流域各站点降水未来趋势进行预测。研究结果表明: 流域内各站点汛期多年降水变化呈现增 加趋势, 但变化趋势并不显著; 流域汛期降水变化存在 22 a 左右的主周期; 突变分析表明汛期各站点降水的突变年 份并不完全相同, 而预计汛期降水量的未来变化将呈现出微弱的上升趋势。

We to ok the Xiaoqing Riv er basin as the study area. Based o n the daily pr ecipitation data from 1977 to 2014 at fiv e rainfall stations, w e used the Mann2Kendall t rend test to analy ze the variatio n tr end o f flood2seaso n precipitation at each st ation; then we used M orlet wav elet to analyze the perio dical variatio n of flo od2seaso n precipitation. We detected the abr upt chang e po ints o f the precipit ation series using various metho ds, including the Mann2Kendall metho d, sliding t test, sequential clust ering analysis, and Yamamo to method. Finally, we used the H urst exponent method to pr edict the future trend of the flood2seaso n pr ecipitatio n at each statio n. T he results show ed that the flo od2seaso n precipitatio n tended to incr ease, but the abr upt chang e po ints w ere insig nificant. T he period of the flo od2season pr ecipitation was about 22 years. T he abr upt change analysis show ed that the abrupt chang e points of the f loo d2season pr ecipitation detected by different metho ds w ere no t consistent, and the futur e variatio n o f the estimated flo od2seaso n precipitat ion showed a weak upw ard tr end.

国家重点研发计划( 2017YFC1502703) ; 济南市海绵城市水循环演变与水文过程模拟项目( JNH MCS22017)