冰湖溃决是冰川区突发的严重山地灾害之一。目前, 全球气候变暖, 冰川普遍退缩, 冰湖面积和溃决风险也随 之增大。因此, 冰湖溃决预警方法的研究对冰川地区防灾减灾有着重要的实际意义。现提供了一种综合考虑气温 与降雨条件影响的冰湖溃决预警方法, 选择预测日前期正积温逐日增长速度值与预测日前期 30 d 累积降雨量作为 气温和降雨的代表性指标, 通过对 2010 年前发生的 21 例溃决事件统计, 结合邻近 21 个气象台站的日均温和日降 雨量资料分析, 建立了冰湖溃决的预警警戒线和冰湖溃决预警系统流程。其后, 选择 2013 年 7 月 5 日的然则日阿 错冰湖溃决案例对建立的冰湖溃决预警系统进行验证, 发现预警效果良好。

Glacial lake o ut burst floods ( GLOFs) ar e serious disasters in glacial ar eas. At pr esent, due to global w arming , g laciers are generally diminishing; thus increasing the glacial lake area and the o ut burst risk. Therefo re, the r esear ch on early w arning met ho ds for GLOFs is impo rtant to disast er preventio n and r elief in glacial ar eas. This pa per pro po ses an early war ning method using the temperatur e and rainfall as indices. We selected t he daily g row th rat e o f prio r period po sitiv e cumulat ive temperatur e and the prior thirty2day cumulat ive rainfall as the r epr esentativ e indices of temperature and r ainfall. Based o n the statistics of the 21 o utburst ev ents befo re 2010 and the data fr om the 21 nearby meteor olog ical statio ns, w e built an o utburst early w arning thresho ld and a flow chart o f t he GLOF early w ar ning sy stem. The sy st em w as verified by the GLOF event in the Ranzeaco gla2 cial lake on 2013207205.

中国科学院西部之光重点项目( Y5R2040040) ; 国家自然科学基金( 41877261; 41571004) ; 中国科学院成都山地所/ 一三五0方向 性项目( SDS21352 1701) ; 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金( SKHL1516)