徒骇河位于山东省海河流域南部，为山东省北部的发展提供水资源。随着社会的高速发展，徒骇河流域水资源供需矛盾日益突出。本文在不考虑南水北调东线调水情况下，以2010年为现状年，2020年和2030年为预测年，根据徒骇河流域的典型特征和徒骇河流域各县市的社会经济发展规划，对徒骇河流域供、需水量进行预测，并分析水资源供需平衡状况。结果表明：在现状年2010年，徒骇河流域供水量与需水量基本维持平衡；2020年，徒骇河流域P=50%（平水年）、P=75%（枯水年）缺水量分别为8.94×108 m3、3.56×108 m3，缺水率分别为19.46%、7.75%；2030年，徒骇河流域P=50%（平水年）、P=75%（枯水年）缺水量分别为11.68×108 m3、6.52×108 m3，缺水率分别为25.24%、14.09%。即徒骇河流域的水资源在未来10年至20年不能完全满足生产、生活、生态的需水要求，需通过有效措施，使流域水资源得到可持续利用。

The Tuhai River is located in the south of the Haihe River Basin in Shandong Province and provides water resources for the development of the northern region of Shandong Province. The imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become more prominent with the rapid development of the society. This paper selected 2010 as the status quo year, 2020 and 2030 as the forecast years. The water supply and demand in the Tuhai River Basin was forecasted according to the typical characteristics and the social and economic development planning, regardless of the east route of south-to-north water diversion project, and then the balance between supply and demand of water resources was analyzed. The results showed that when P=50%(normal year), P=75% (low flow year), the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 11.2×108 m3, 5.86×108 m3, the water deficient ratio was 19.66%,11.31% in 2020. When P=50%(normal flow year), P=75% (low flow year), the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 13.98×108 m3, 8.82×108 m3, the water deficient ratio was 3.20%,16.01% in 2030. The water resources in the Tuhai River Basin would not fully meet the requirements of production, life, ecological system in next 10-20 years, and some effective measures are required to ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources.

山东省省级水利科研及技术推广项目（SDSLKY201314）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（2010CB951104）