据三河闸水文站1964年－2013年的监测资料，采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、累积距平法以及Morlet小波分析法，探究多年来三河闸的泄流变化规律。研究结果表明，近50年来三河闸年泄流量呈下降趋势；年泄流变化的主周期是30 a左右，同时存在6 a、14 a时间尺度的变化周期；汛期来水变化的主周期是48 a左右，30 a是第二主周期，同时还存在5 a、10 a的小尺度变化周期。从30 a周期来看，未来8 a三河闸年泄流仍处于相对枯水期，预计2024年开始进入相对丰水期，到2038年左右，丰水期结束。

Based on the monitoring data from 1964 to 2013 of Sanhe hydrology station, by linear trend method, moving average method, the cumulative anomaly and Morlet wavelet analysis method, explored the discharge variation of Sanhe Sluice for many years. The research results showed that the annual discharge of Sanhe Sluice shows downward trend in recent 50 years; the main period of Sanhe Sluice discharge changes is 30 years, the changes of cycle also exist for 6 years, 14 year time scales. The main period of flood season discharge changes is about 48 years, and 30 years is the second main cycle. There are also some small scales change periods of 5, 10 years. From 30 years of large cycle, the next 8 years the Sanhe Sluice will still at a relatively low water period. It is expected that the discharge begin to enter the relatively abundant water period in 2024, and the wet period will come to end around 2038.

江苏省水利科技基金(2013044,2014024)