以临沂市许家崖水库为例, 采用Copula 函数研究了水库洪峰流量与其流域内雨量站降雨量以及洪峰流量自 相关的相关性。流域内选取许家崖、棠梨树、高桥、白彦、王家邵庄五个雨量站, 分析其24 h 最大降雨量与洪峰流量 的相关关系, 并研究洪峰流量1 阶至6 阶自相关关系, 最后计算在丰水年、平水年和枯水年状态下洪峰流量的条件 分布。结果表明, 许家崖雨量站与洪峰流量相关性最好, 其次为王家邵庄、高桥、棠梨树, 最后是白彦。洪峰流量自 相关性比较差, 最好的是4 阶自相关, 结论从条件分布图也得到了印证。

The co rr elation between the peak flo od and r ainf all and the self2co rr elatio n of peak flood in the Xujiaya r eser voir of Li2 nyi City w ere studied based on the Co pula function. Fiv e pr ecipitatio n stations, including the Xujiaya, Tang lishu, Gaoqiao, Baiy2 an, and Wangjiashao zhuang precipitation stations, wer e selected to analyze the cor relatio n betw een the max imum r ainfall in 24 ho ur s and peak flood and the self2cor relatio n of peak floo d from the first to six orders, and to calculate the co nditional distribu2 tions of peak flood in the wet y ear, no rmal water year , and dr y y ea r. The results show ed that the cor relat ion between the peak floo d and rainfall is the best at the Xujiaya station, followed by the Wangjiashaozhuang, Gaoqiao, Tanglishu, and Baiy an sta2 tions, and the self2cor relation of peak flo od is relatively poo r w hich can be co nfirmed by the conditio nal distributio n chart s.